— Are we there, yet?
— Almost there.
— And now? Are we there, yet?
Being a bored kid in a car wanting to get there fast is as typical as kids loving sugar or what screens can give them. Seeing a glimpse of great technology work, like magic, also hints at what the near future could be. However, as Elon Musk’s predictions suggest, the future sometimes takes longer to arrive and takes unexpected turns — sometimes for the better.
I’ve heard over the years that the last 5% of any technology advancement is the hardest. There are exceptions, of course, but recently, several promises have been delayed in one way or another.
This includes robot cars on every street (making driving a thing of the past), nuclear fusion providing unlimited energy (a prediction always said to be 10 years away for the last five decades), and quantum computers that will revolutionize science and break Internet encryption.
Science, collaboration, the right incentives, and some luck in finding the right path quickly influence the best outcomes of these promises. Humanity has achieved great things in short periods of time.
Going to space and landing humans on the moon in the late 60s was both surprising and fast-moving. It involved a lot of money, 400,000 people, and several companies, but it paid off. Just this week, astronaut William Anders, one of the first humans to travel to the moon on the Apollo 8 mission, died at 90 in a plane crash. He was the first to photograph Earth from space — the iconic Earthrise photo.
Before the achievements of 1968 and 1969 (with Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin walking on the moon during NASA’s Apollo 11 mission), JFK said in his famous 1962 speech:
We choose to go to the Moon. We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.”
To do all this, and do it right, and do it first before this decade is out–then we must be bold.
We set sail on this new sea because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won, and they must be won and used for the progress of all people. For space science, like nuclear science and all technology, has no conscience of its own. Whether it will become a force for good or ill depends on man
Still in the 1960s, a nice little band of four guys from Liverpool, England, called The Beatles, made dozens of incredible songs that still live on in a short-lived career of around 10 years, with the partnership between Paul and John, John and Paul, and then George as well.
We saw something similar in terms of speed of impact with the personal computer, then the Internet in the 90s, and the smartphone in the 2000s. A mix of amazing collaboration, effort, science, technology, drive, and vision, combined with some luck — right moment, right incentives, right people, right society, right legacy, right time.
LLMs and generative AI, in the initial form of ChatGPT (and DALL-E), had a surprising effect since late November 2022, generating much hype for what it is and could do. No one really knows if ChatGPT is a revolution or just an interesting improvement. The last and more important 10% or 5% (hallucinations, trust issues, understanding how it works) will probably take more time, with change being incremental, not explosive. Not all humans, societies, and countries move at the same pace.
There’s still much to see, if we, you and I, are alive to see it. We belong to humanity, we’re just single humans with finite time. But there’s hope that robot cars will become the norm, energy will be free and unlimited, computing power will be easy to get and use, and AI will help create a new and improved society.
Looking ahead, the promise of biotechnology and genetic engineering also holds tremendous potential. CRISPR and other gene-editing technologies could revolutionize medicine by curing genetic disorders, extending human lifespan, and even enhancing physical and cognitive abilities.
The integration of AI in healthcare is also set to transform diagnostics, personalized treatment plans, and drug discovery, leading to more effective and efficient medical care.
Meanwhile, advancements in renewable energy technologies, such as advanced solar cells and energy storage solutions, offer hope for a sustainable future, reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and mitigating climate change. These emerging technologies, alongside those already mentioned, paint an optimistic picture of a future where science and innovation drive human progress.
Humans could depend less on work and more on their interests and projects. Universal basic income (UBI) could become a reality, though it will require more than just starting (now) giving people money.
UBI has its challenges, including impacts on drive, motivation, and purpose, as some studies indicate. However, there is a path to achieve something new for future human societies. Balancing financial security with personal fulfillment, UBI could enable individuals to pursue passions, innovate, and contribute to their communities in meaningful ways. This shift could redefine the nature of work and the way we value our time and contributions.
That said, all these technologies and changes will be serving our ancient bodies and brains, not that far removed from 100,000-year-old Neanderthals. Our somewhat old societies also take time to adapt and change. Humans can adapt quickly when there’s urgency, such as during pandemics or wars, though this takes a toll on our minds, insecurities, and habits. However, when changes are incremental, adaptation tends to take more time.
